28 September, 2015

南アフリカのアクチュアリー会正会員は,2015年現在で1091人

IAA SEPTEMBER 2015 NEWSLETTER
http://www.actuaries.org/LIBRARY/Newsletters/2015_September.pdf


  • CERA保有者は42人だとか。
  • 生保・年金部門で51%,13%がショートターム(損保)分野に関わる。



南アフリカの人口は2015年推定で約55mnですよ(ソース)。

25 September, 2015

Swiss Re "sigma, September 2015, Liability insurance in Asia"

アジアのLiability保険の概説といいながら,ジャンル自体のいいおさらいにもなる。

Swiss Re "sigma, September 2015, Liability insurance in Asia"
http://media.swissre.com/documents/Expertise_Publication_Liability_insurance_in_Asia.pdf


Actuarial Post "Aon's 7 emerging risk opportunities for insurance growth”

Actuarial Post "Aon's 7 emerging risk opportunities for insurance growth”
http://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/aon----039s-7-emerging-risk-opportunities-for-insurance-growth-8522.htm

The seven key emerging risks identified by the report comprise:
  1. U.S. mortgage credit: Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are transferring U.S. mortgage market risk in a series of reinsurance transactions, with the potential demand for USD6 billion of reinsurance limit annually.
  2. Sharing economy: with individuals renting out personal assets for money in direct competition with established businesses like hotels and taxis, coverage gaps highlight an immediate opportunity for re/insurers to offer policies which span personal and commercial exposures.
  3. Reputation and brand: the #1 risk identified by the 2015 Aon Global Risk Management Survey.
  4. Microinsurance: offering access to four billion potential new customers, and with opportunities for long-term growth as developing economies gradually become more affluent.
  5. Corporate liability: opportunities for re/insurers to provide cover for giga losses, which require more than USD1 billion of reinsurance limit.
  6. Terrorism: leveraging military-based technology to better understand this risk and improve model competencies, such as accounting for factors that mitigate blast zone damage.
  7. Cyber risk: as data and analytics improve, Aon forecasts that cyber risk will move from complex and undermanaged into the insurance mainstream, where markets can adequately price and transfer risk.

23 September, 2015

ETH "The Loss Given Default in Credit Insurance: Summary"

http://www.cs-pml.org/images/document/CS-PML-Summary-2008-09-23.pdf
(Abstract)
The present PML study investigates the loss given default (LGD) in the trade credit insurance market for large risks (exposure higher than 500’000 Euro). The resulting mean market LGD of 9.5% is mainly determined by exposure reduction prior to settlement of the claim with the customer (pre loss scenario). An intense sensitivity analysis showed that screening of the data is the major part to obtain reliable results.
  • ETHのスタディによると,貿易信用保険の平均LGDは9.5%(EUR500k以上のエクスポージャー)。先行するPASAのスタディ(14%)より小さいが,これはPASAのスタディにおけるデータ収集がシステマティックでなかったことに,主に起因する。
  • 信頼区間は±2.78%,すなわち [6.7%, 12.3%]。
  • median は 4.7%。
  • ETHのモデルでは,デフォルトの前後にフェーズを分けている。デフォルト前のフェース(αフェーズ)では,被保険者の状況によって granted limit が削減されることを仮定している。(Reduction of granted limit: The credit insurance policy allows the insurer to reduce and even cancel credit limit at any point in time in case of signs of potential financial difficulties of the buyer, possibly in several steps. )